I have run a set of predictions for TNO's for the next 5 years using both Tycho2, and UCAC2. [I have used a loose definition - semimajor axis greater than 10AU]. I have limited the run to asteroids greater than 200km diameter, and stars brighter than 15.
My selection criteria for the events were as follows:
I then looked at the occultation path and assessed the region of visibility - based on an assumption that the path might occur anywhere across the Earth - that is, the region of possible visibility are those regions where the star is up, and the sun down.
In all, 28 events are identified over the 5-year interval. If anyone wants copies, I can email them - their size is about 15K each. Or you can download the Occelmnt file (as noted below) and make your own plots.
The summary list is as follows.
Dave Herald
Canberra, Australia
Date U.T. Diameter Durn Star Mag Elon % Star Planet Rec Possible region of visibility
y m d h m km " m/sec mag drop o Ill No. No Name #
2007 Jan 02 22 12.1 240 0.01 13.1s 12.1 9.8 140 2UCAC 37002283 2001 CZ31 167 Europe, Africa, Asia
2007 Jan 19 10 54.1 380 0.01 17.3s 11.4 9.8 53 2UCAC 29760359 2001 QF298 202 e.Australia, Japan
2007 Feb 13 18 8.7 240 0.01 9.5s 8.0 13.8 177 HIP 47211 2001 CZ31 3 Japan, Asia, SE Asia, Australasia, Africa
2007 Apr 08 22 6.3 219 0.01 10.0s 12.4 10.4 150 2UCAC 34287196 2000 CJ105 150 Brazil, Africa, Europe, w.Asia
2007 Apr 10 18 13.5 200 0.01 12.0s 12.0 10.7 65 2UCAC 39628496 1999 XY143 143 e.Africa, Middle east
2007 Aug 01 16 46.3 270 0.03 14.5s 11.9 6.2 79 2UCAC 18419691 10199 Chariklo 10 e.Africa
2007 Aug 30 10 18.3 566 0.03 32.3s 13.8 6.1 141 2UCAC 31096596 47171 1999 TC36 65 New Zealand, Nth America
2007 Dec 24 10 52.1 270 0.03 9.6s 11.2 6.9 57 2UCAC 16833358 10199 Chariklo 13 Sth USA, Mexico
2008 Jan 22 6 3.0 740 0.02 55.3s 10.8 10.4 126 2UCAC 40810575 19521 Chaos 37 Sth USA, Mexico
2008 Sep 10 13 5.1 1260 0.04 188s 13.7 5.4 89 2UCAC 26249129 50000 Quaoar 70 SE Asia, Australasia
2008 Sep 30 7 38.3 804 0.03 47.2s 13.6 6.0 65 2UCAC 22496420 28978 Ixion 45 New Zealand
2008 Oct 07 19 54.5 804 0.03 39.5s 12.8 6.8 58 2UCAC 22496543 28978 Ixion 46 w.Africa
2008 Dec 23 19 11.8 417 0.01 33.8s 14.9 5.7 111 2UCAC 27593946 120348 2004 TY364 134 Europe, Africa, India
2009 May 01 13 40.9 1260 0.04 68.2s 14.3 4.8 141 2UCAC 26252549 50000 Quaoar 71 Australasia
2009 Jul 18 4 39.5 383 0.02 14.4s 7.7 12.4 48 HIP 21308 55638 2002 VE95 1 Spain, w.Africa
2009 Aug 03 6 36.1 270 0.03 19.3s 10.8 7.3 93 2UCAC 15975995 10199 Chariklo 19 New Zealand
2009 Oct 09 10 29.4 810 0.03 32.0s 13.1 6.4 157 2UCAC 41650964 55636 2002 TX300 75 Nth America, Japan, Australasia
2009 Oct 15 18 11.1 1260 0.04 57.8s 15.0 4.1 56 2UCAC 26023237 50000 Quaoar 72 Africa, Europe
2009 Oct 28 11 17.0 1200 0.04 45.6s 13.1 7.5 172 2UCAC 39085091 84522 2002 TC302 102 Asia, Nth America, Australasia
2010 Sep 12 22 18.1 221 0.01 24.9s 10.6 10.8 84 2UCAC 39275886 33340 1998 VG44 57 India, central Asia, east Europe
2010 Dec 19 14 35.2 630 0.02 29.9s 14.2 6.8 151 2UCAC 35331094 15874 1996 TL66 36 Asia, India, Australasia, Japan
2010 Dec 24 12 35.7 700 0.02 30.2s 14.3 5.8 54 2UCAC 21326324 90568 2004 GV9 120 central USA
| 2007 | Jan 02 | Jan 19 | Feb 13 | Apr 08 | Apr 10 | Aug 01 | Aug 30 | Dec 24 | |
| 2008 | Jan 22 | Sep 10 | Sep 30 | Oct 07 | Dec 23 | ||||
| 2009 | May 01 | Jul 18 | Aug 03 | Oct 09 | Oct 15 | Oct 28 | |||
| 2010 | Sep 12 | Dec 19 | Dec 24 |
The following are the semimajor axes of the orbits of the asteroids involved:
10199 Chariklo a=15.9 (between Saturn and Uranus)
15874 1996 TL66 a=82.8
19521 Chaos a=45.6
20000 Varuna a=43.0
28978 Ixion a=39.6
33340 1999 VG44 a=39.1
47171 1999 TC36 a=39.2
47932 2000 GN171 a=39.7
50000 Quaoar a=43.5
55636 2002 TX300 a=43.1
55638 2002 VE95 a=39.2
82155 2001 FZ173 a=87.0
84522 2002 TC302 a=55.0
90568 2004 GV9 a=42.3
120348 2004 TY364 a=38.7
1999 XY143 a=42.9
2000 CJ105 a=44.4
2001 CZ31 a=45.4
2001 KA77 a=47.6
2001 QF298 a=39.3
2001 QS322 a=43.9
2002 GJ32 a=44.5
For those interested in having their own look at these events, I have put a copy of the Occelmnt file for use with winOccult in the Files section of the IOTAoccultations group. Its called "KBO 2005 2010.txt". Note that the file is formatted for the latest version of winOccult, and can't be used in versions earlier than v3.6.
[webmaster's note:] Here is the Occelmnt File file in ZIP format for those that do not subscribe to the IOTAoccultation Yahoo Group. Unzip and place in the Asteroid folder in Occult v3.6. You can then look at these events by running the Asteroidal Module and the selecting the Occelmnt file through the "Display Predictions" option.
Dave Herald
Canberra, Australia